F 




6-<^j 



r&ucji n* &*#~-~ 



'/%4-d* o , 




ill 




Class F*nt - 

Book_TAJ>_2L 



A PRESENTATION OF CAUSES 

TENDING TO FIX THE TOSITION OF THE 

FUTURE GREAT CITY 

OF THE WORLD 

IN THE 

CENTRAL PLAIN OF NORTH AMERICA: 

SHOWING THAT 

THE CENTRE OF THE WORLD'S COMMERCE, 

NOW REPRESENTED BY THE 

C ITY OF LONDON 

IS MOVING "WESTWARD TO THF. - ' '' ' 

CITY OF NEW YORK, 

AND THENCE, WITHIN ONE HUNDRED YEARS, TO 

THE BEST POSITION ON THE GREAT LAKES, 



BY J. W. SCOTT. 



Second Edition (Revised ) 
1876 



TOLEDO : 

BLADE STEAM BOOK AND JOB PRINT. 
t 

IT 0*0 



Entered, acco^,t^^^Co S ,^- o ^ r ^^ ctot 



, in the yeav 1868, ny J. W. Scott, in tbe Clerk's 

' .,.„ x'.,itv, r,, District ot Ohio. 






EDITOR'S PREFACE. 



Quite a long introduction to a second edition of this pampHlet was 
written a short time before the author's death, in December 1873, when he 
was revising it for publication. The original manuscript, however, 
embraced so much matter that was contained in the pamphlet itself, that 
the editor has thought it advisable to retain only so much of it as seemed 
due in justice to the author's sentiment of pride in his theory : a theory 
which he was, I believe, the first to broach, and, throughout a long life, to 
maintain with an ability which has always been recognized, and a faith in 
it that nothing could waver. Though his conclusions were at first deemed 
too wild to be sound, and were laughed at by those who failed to follow 
his reasoning, they were usually regarded as pretty well demonstrated by 
those svho did follow it. Now, these theories of city growth have become 
staple thought among intelligent men, so that few persons of the present 
day know how original and striking they were when projected in Mr. 
Scott's writings more than forty years ago. Then, barely to. suggest that 
any interior city might some day become a metropolis, rivaling New 
York, was thought too absurd a stretch of imagination to be entitled to 
respect. The final conclusions reached by Mr. Scott, in this pamphlet, as 
the result of his study of causes and effects which will fix the location of 
the future greatest city, may seem in their special application cpiite as bold 
to-day as his general theory concerning the power of interior trade did 
forty years ajo. Time alone can prove whether his last deductions are 
less strongly based than tiie preliminary demonstrations. 

In this edition of the pamphlet some matter has been omitted which 
seemed not essential to the thread of the argument, or likely to embarrass 
the ordinary reader by too much detail of statistical illustration. I have 
also added some expressions, as well as some pages of my own, in the 
body of the pamphlet, on the subject of cheap fuel as one of the primary 
productions necessary In attracl a dense population. This branch of the 
argument was not overlooked by my father, but, through some unaccount- 
able oversight, was not embraced in his argument as published in the first 
edition of the pamphlet. I have taken the liberty to interject it, knowing 
that it would meet the author's approbation were he living. 

Toledo, January 15, 1876. P. J. S.co fcfc— 



THE AUTHOR'S INTRODUCTION TO THE 
SECOND EDITION. 

The second edition of this pamphlet is intended to be the last of a 
long series of papers from my pen, designed to call attention to the great 
future development of the interior trade of our country, and especially to 
its effect to produce great cities. 

As long ago as 1828, pondering on the geographical claims of the 
interior of cur Continent to draw to it a great population, I reached the 
conclusion that in it would grow up one or more of our largest cities-, 
exceeding all except New York. In 1832, in a small monthly published 
by me in Norwalk, Ohio, I first made public this opinion with facts and 
reasons in its support. In 1S39, and afterwards, I published several papers 
on the subject of Internal Trade, and its effect in the development of 
cities, in the Hesperian, a monthly, published by Wm. D. Gallagher and 
Otway Curry, first in Columbus, 0., and afterwards in Cincinnati. The 
same subject was afterwards more fully treated by me in Hunts Merchants 
Magazine, of New York, through several volumes, but chiefly in volumes 
eight and nine. Later, several articles on the subject were furnished to 
He Bow's Review. These articles opened up views at first altogether new, 
and their novelty excited both ridicule and discussion. 

In this pamphlet the author hopes to give the reader clear views of 
what he believes to be the true theory of the growth of cities. His final 
conclusions he expects to be received with incredulity or doubt. Of their 
general soundness, however, he hopes sufficient facts and reasons are 
furnished to bring; conviction to careful and unbiassed readers. 



THE GROWTH OF CITIES. 



<£§?ITIES are organisms that grow up as naturally as men. They 
<^ develop where human faculties are most effective, and be- 
cause these faculties can be more effective there than elsewhere. 
Like men, too, they are mutually helpful. London could not 
have grown to be what she is without the aid of Birmingham, 
Manchester, Liverpool, and other great cities in her neighborhood 
and in other parts of the world. Proximity to these nas given 
her, and sustained in her, more than one of the millions of her 
people. On the other hand, London has not failed to return to 
her sister cities the full measure of benefits received from them. 
As all the principal cities of the world contribute to the support 
of London, so they all take tribute of her. Honest commerce 
gives forth equal benefits, and no commerce that is not honest 
can be permanently successful. 

The earliest great cities were built by a race of men inferior to 
our own, to-wit : the Mongolian Chinese. Their means for 
commercial operations — navigable rivers and canals — though 
imperfect, enabled them to centralize commerce so as to build up 
cities containing a million or more of people; but, with insuffi- 
cient unity of government and interest to draw commerce to one 
great centre. Subsequently, Caucasian and mixed races cen- 
tralized the commerce of their several national dominions, on the 
Tigris, Euphrates, Nile, Ganges, and other navigable rivers! These 
were commercial centres, chiefly for the nations which made them 
their capitals for, at that period, very little commerce between 
nations existed. The early cities of the Mediterranean sea were 
the first that were made centres of anv considerable international 



commerce ; and this was chiefly confined to the waters of that 
sea. In short, trade, in early times, was confined to very limited 
regions. It was local and isolated. Gradually, it has grown to 
be more general, and its leading centres have become more pop- 
ulous and powerful, until, now, a centre for the commerce of the 
whole world challenges discussion. 

The invention of the mariner's compass united, in a measure, 
the great continents, and brought all lands within the views of 
commerce. The earth was sailed around, and all its prominent 
characteristics became known. Slowly, at first, but faster and 
faster, the productions of different climates and different condi- 
tions of people were brought to shipping ports and exchanged. 
Now, the new and wonderful instrumentalities, steam and electric 
telegraphs, are making all peoples into one commercial family, and 
concentrating their commerce in great centres — as London, Paris, 
and New York. It is a question of great interest whether one of 
these is to be the acknowledged heart and brain of the world's 
commerce ; giving to the word commerce its widest signification. 
As yet commerce has not become organized as a complete unit, 
and, therefore, has not a universally acknowledged central city ; 
though its development, within the last fifty years, has rapidly 
tended to centralization in the Island of Britain and the city of 
London. Paris is, and has long been, the acknowledged social 
centre of the world, due to its supremacy in the elegant arts and 
the amenities of high civilization. 

Where will, probably, grow up the great cities of the future ? 
I say, probably, for new elements may come into the calculation 
that are now unknown or unappreciated. 

I shall assume that a city is an organism, springing from natural 
laws as inevitably as any other organism, and governed, invariably, 
in its origin and growth, by these laws. I shall also assume, and 
endeavor to prove, that these cities are to be on the North Ameri- 
can Continent, and not far distant from the centre of the indus- 
trial power of this continent, when well peopled and its resources 
well developed, and in positions of easy access to commerce with 
othei peoples with whom we exchange productions. 

The growth of a city is analogous to the growth of a man. 



The first and greatest necessity of a human being is food. The 
next is clothing; after which comes shelter and fuel. Food, 
clothing, houses and fuel. These are the prime and essential re- 
quisites. There can be no civilized life without all of them. 
But these are products of labor and skill. Where can labor and 
skill be used to greatest advantage, in the production of those 
necessities? The solution of this question will go far to fix a 
natural location for a great city. 

But there are other necessities of high civilization, without 
which there can be no great city. There must be easy" communi- 
cation between it and other industrious and populous com- 
munities ; good navigable channels, and, in our day, good road- 
ways over the land. There needs be cheap and quick means of 
transportation, in order to effect that facile interchange of com- 
modities which sustains high civilization. In discussing the ques- 
tion of the location of the future greatest city, it will be assumed 
that our continent will be settled by an industrious population, 
and most densely inhabited where food and other primary needs 
are most certainly attainable, and labor receives its best reward. 

It is difficult for many persons to bring their minds to contem- 
plate, as possible, a 'future differing materially from the present 
and the past. It is only those who have studied the course of 
human progress, and its tendency towards a more perfect society 
and a more general union of races, in commercial operations and 
social relations, who can appreciate, at their proper value, facts 
and arguments that go to show results differing from, and greater 
than any heretofore manifested. As men become more enlarged 
in their views, and have a truer comprehension of the laws gov- 
erning matter and mind, they become fitted to more extended 
relations with their fellow-men. It is the same with societies and 
nations. They have more and more points of friendly con- 
tact, so that tribes grow into nations, and nations are enlarged to 
embrace all homogeneous races. As nations interact and mingle, 
international amenities ripen into a feeling of brotherhood, so 
that it is only following out the course of events to anticipate, as 
the crowning result, one great centre — one city of the world — 
which shall be the acknowledged focus and radiating point of its 



8 

wealth, intelligence and moral power. Such cities London and 
Paris are striving to be, and, in a. qualified degree, are. They will 
approach that condition, when, in a few short years, there shall be 
communication by connecting telegraphy with all quarters of the 
globe, so that people the most distant may hold daily intercourse 
with each other. These cities, for a time, will remain the world's 
acknowledged chief centres for thought and action, and with 
increasing power. 

But events in our time evolve rapidly, and especially in city 
growth. In a period of no more than half a century, the western 
movement of population and wealth, in one swelling tide, will 
have increased the power of the chief city of the Western Con- 
tinent to a degree enabling it to overshadow the greatest European 
capitals. London and New York have each an established rate 
of increase, as proved by successive enumerations, in each decade 
of the current century. London has grown at a rate that doubles 
its number once in forty years, commencing in 1S01. Carried 
forward through three duplications, it exhibits the following 
results: 1 80 1, 95^,863 ; 1841,1,917,726; 1881,3,835,452; 1921, 
7,670,904. New York, commencing in 1S00, with 60,489, has, 
with its dependent suburbs, doubled its numbers, on an average, 
in 15 years. Carrying that rate of increase up to 1920, its num- 
bers will be 15,484,784. This will be considered an incredible 
result. With present and improving means of communication, 
the ability to grow and support great cities, as the country 
becomes populous and rich, must be admitted. Even with present 
means of transit, the outer boundaries of city and suburban res- 
idences extend tens of miles from the business centres of our 
cities. A radius of fifty miles will not be too extended to em- 
brace, before the end of the present century, the people drawing 
their chief support from great cities. Within two hours' time all 
within that radius may be carried to or from the chief business 
centre and their homes ; most of them within one hour. There 
is nothing, therefore, in the greatness of this number, to warrant 
distrust of its attainment. If its growth shall be checked, it will 
not be because our cities, generally, will receive a smaller propor- 
tion of our population than heretofore. It were easy to prove 
that the proportion will be increased. If New York fails of its 



proportionate growth, it can only be because western rivals may- 
gain at her expense. 

The movement of men and money, in a constantly broadening 
and deepening current, from the Atlantic States, westward, into 
the interior of our continent, compels us to anticipate a successful 
rival, to grow up within that broad plain embracing the basins of 
the St. Lawrence and Mississippi, and the country north of them. 
We are also compelled, by the evidences furnished during forty 
years, of the power of lake cities to concentrate the commerce of 
the great plain, to believe them destined to secure the location of 
the great interior city. More and more they have drawn trade 
from the great river valleys of the plain, proving the superiority of 
their position to that of cities on the borders of the great rivers. 
The general direction of the lakes being east and west, and so in 
the line of the great commerce of the world, gives the cities on 
their borders, placed in or near this line, very great advantages 
over all others. 

There is a philosophy of climatical influence, on the character 
of man, animals and plants which can be well developed, exem- 
plified and illustrated, only, by a familiar knowledge of these 
departments of natural history. As I have not that knowledge, I 
will only express my belief that the best possible climate, for the 
attainment of their highest and best characteristics, is that which 
requires the exertion of their utmost powers to overcome the 
obstacles which it interposes to their development, in a region 
where the natural capabilities of the earth are such as to give the 
stimulus of success to reward such exertion. Caucasian man has 
proved that climate, for himself, and the animals and plants pro- 
motive of his highest good, to be within a few degrees of the 
annual isotherm of 50 degrees Fahrenheit. 

THE ZONE OF GREAT CITIES. 

Disturnell, the geographer, in a paper read before the American 
Geographical and Statistical Society, of New York, in i860, on 
the influence of climate, on the growth of cities, gives a list of 
cities, with their population, in different zones of climate. In the 
middle zone, having a mean annual temperature between 48 and 



52 degrees, Fahrenheit, his list embraces most of the great cities 
of the world, having an aggregate population of 9,233,984. His 
list of cities in the northern zone, having a mean annual tempe- 
rature between 40 and 4S degrees, Fahrenheit, embraces an ag- 
gregate population of 2,810,418; and in the warmer zone, havin? 
a mean annual temperature between 52 and 60 degrees Fahren- 
heit, an aggregate of 5,850,000. The zone of temperature between 
4S and 52 degrees is a narrow belt, which passes through 
Astrachan, Odessa, Vienna, near Paris, through London, Liver- 
pool, Dublin, New York, near the south end of Lakes Erie and 
Michigan, through Omaha, on the Missouri, and bearing south 
on the elevated plateau of the continent, thence takes a north- 
west direction to the Pacific, at the south end of Van Couver's 
Island. This zone is much wider in central and Western Europe, 
and on the Pacific coast, than elsewhere. Its course through 
Asia is nearly on a line of latitude of Pekin, and is rot wide. 
The cities of the warm zones are making a slower growth than 
those of the coldest zone ; but those in the middle temperate 
zone are growing much faster than either of the others. For ex- 
ample : London is put down at 2,357,765, and now contains over 
3,250,000. Paris is set down at 1,153,262, whereas a recent enu- 
meration gives it over 2,100,000. Chicago is set down at 100,000, 
and now has three times that number. New York and Brooklyn 
are set down together at 835,000, whereas they number at least 
more than 1,350,000.* Other cities in this list have shown a 
similar growth. It will not be an over-estimate of this favorite 
city belt to set down its present city population at 20,000,000. 
This is greater than the city population of all the rest of the 
world, which is approximately estimated as follows : 

In the Cold Zone, north of an average of 50 degrees, Fahrenheit 4,000,000 

In the Warm Zone, south of an average of 50 degrees, Fahrenheit.. 8,000,000 

In the Middle Zone, between the above lines 20,000,000 

The current of population follows, nearly, lines of equal tempe- 
rature, with a tendency to move from excesses of heat and cold 
toward the zone of 50 degrees Fahrenheit, mean annual tempe- 
rature. This zone, according to Disturnell, has a mean width of 

* Ey the census of 1S70 New York and its suburbs, within a radius of twenty miles, con- 
tained a population of more than 1,650,000. 



less than two hundred miles. Its north boundary lin j in the 
United States passes through or near the cities of Albany, Detroit, 
and Chicago, and thence westerly on a line north of west to Van- 
couver's Island on the Pacific. The south boundary line, in 
Ncrth America, passes through or near the following places: 
Philadelphia; Columbus, Ohio; Springfield, Illinois; St. Joseph. 
Missouri ; Santa Fe, Great Salt Lake, Dalles, Astoria. In 
Europe, its north line passes, from a point a little north of the 
Caspian Sea, westward, through the cities of Posen, Berlin, Hani- 
burg, Newcastle, Glasgow, and Belfast. Its south line passes 
westward from the outlet of the Sea of Asof, near Buda, Munich, 
and Orleans, to the Atlantic, at Brest, in France. 

I give * below figures made up from the United States census of 
i860, exhibiting the operation of the power of climate on city 
growth, within the belt embraced within the annual isotherm of 
48 and 52 degrees Fahrenheit. This zone, varying in width from 
120 to 200 miles, embraces but a small portion of our country, 
but it concentrates within its limits a much greater city popu- 
lation than all the broad expanse on both sides of it. 

The power of climate to control human movements and habi- 
tation, and to concentrate population in the region best adapted to 
the development of the best energies of man, is manifested more 
and more as knowledge extends, and the means to remove to such 
best region, become more and more ample. The tide of human 
movement is westward. It has culminated, or is culminating, in 
Europe, on its extreme western verge, in the middle climate zone, 
in the great cities of England, Germany and France. New York, 
Philadelphia, Buffalo, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, Chicago, Daven- 
port, St. Joseph, Omaha and Denver are on the route of its future 
movement. This fact may be of great importance to persons 
seeking new homes. 

* Sum of the population of cities of over 10,000, by the census of 

186 J Within the belt above described 4,312.700 

( Out of the belt, north and south 1,961,729 

„ _( Within the belt 6,306,781 

' *" I Out of the belt, north and south, including Canadas and California. 2,606,052 

It will be seen that the census of 1370, published since Mr. Scott wrote the above, shows that 
an increasing percentanc of the city population of the United States and the Canadas is em- 
braced in this isothermal belt. — Ed. 



12 



There has been a prevailing error respecting the relative merits 
of climates, in the production and modification of the best plants 
and animals for the use of man, and, by their use, of the best race 
of men. Many suppose an equable climate, having the least 
deviation from a uniform temperature, is best for man and the 
productions which go to make up human growth and social de- 
velopment. Others believe a warm climate with moderate vari- 
ations of temperature most favorable to human happiness and 
political progress — a climate existing chiefly between the tropics 
and latitude 38. 

In the infancy of society, these views were more nearly correct 
than they are now. In the early stages of progress from a savage 
towards a civilized condition, a semi-tropical climate was, evi- 
dently, best calculated to enable the first steps to be taken towards 
a civilized condition. Tropical man, near the ocean level, lived 
with little need of exertion of body or mind. Fruit, growing- 
without his labor or care, supplied him with food ; clothing was 
not needed to guard him against cold. Little labor was required 
to give him all needed shelter. And so, there being no necessity 
to labor, or to invent, he lived, and he still lives, in a condition 
but a few grades above the beasts which surround him. The 
man of the warm climate, outside of the tropics, has need of more 
exertion and contrivance to save him from the pains of hunger 
and cold, and so he, from necessity, developes more active facul- 
ties, and becomes more of a man than the man of the tropics ; 
yet a moderate amount of exertion and contrivance serves his 
turn, and he progresses slowly towards a higher civilization. 
Next, above the man of a warm climate, comes the man of higher 
latitudes, and countries but little elevated above the ocean level. 
His climate is, comparatively, equable, but has enough of the 
cold of winter and the heats of summer to make it necessary for 
him to put forth a large measure of activity and contrivance to 
keep comfortably fed, clothed and sheltered. The man of north- 
western Europe has made greater advances in power, by virtue of 
his necessities, and the blessings resulting from them, than the 
man of the lower latitudes, whose wants are less numerous and 
urgent. But he is not the best possible man. There is a climate 
which has the capacity to produce a better man. That climate is 



J 3 

characterized by Humboldt, as an excessive climate : and, also, as 
a continental climate. It is a climate of extremes of heat and 
cold, of very hot summers and very cold winters, accumulating 
during the cold of winter a nervous susceptibility in animals, and 
something analogous in plants, which enhances the effect of the 
great summer heat, in the evolution of vegetable growth and of 
animal activity and power. It is believed to be historically true 
that the best race of man, and the plants and animals best adapted 
to maintain his superiority, originated in a continental climate, 
having a great range of temperature. When he has changed his 
residence and made a new home, in hot or equable climates, he 
has, uniformly, deteriorated in character, and it has been, only, 
when he has migrated to a climate like that of his origin that he 
has made the best progress in civilization and true manhood. 
The elevated regions of this excessive climate, in the middle lati- 
tudes, are believed to be the best for this race of men. North 
America affords a larger area appropriate for the development of 
this race than the Eastern Continent. In this continent will be 
brought together the largest and most active portion of this race, 
and on its great interior plain will grow up the greatest aggre- 
gation, the greatest nation, the noblest empire of man, and the 
greatest city. Its climate gives the greatest nervous and muscular 
power to man, and the animals best adapted to his wants. It 
enables him to grow the greatest variety of best cereals, the best 
fruits, and the best animals for his use, as well as the best material 
for his clothing and shelter. No other region of the globe, of like 
extent, can equal it, in its capacity to produce the best fruits 
adapted to the health and enjoyment of the best race of men. 
Humboldt, in his "Aspects of Nature," testifies to the superiority 
of the grape grown near Astrachan, in the excessive climate of 
eastern Europe, near latitude 46 degrees, over the best table 
grapes of Spain. Italy and France. Some of the best apples and 
pears in the world, originating in accidental seedlings due to the 
climate, are grown in the United States. There are small por- 
tions of interior Europe and Asia in which the continental climate 
may equal, in life-giving power, the best portions of the United 
States, but they are less favorably placed for commerce, external 
and internal; and they live under inferior political organizations. 



14 

The best climate and soil for the best race of men in North 
America are, in extent, ample for the support of all of that race 
now living, and all its augmenting numbers for centuries to come. 
It contains, also, climates and soils adapted to the constitutions 
of other and inferior races. The black race not only has health 
and a rapid increase, in the warmest portions, but it improves, in 
moral and physical condition ; and there are considerable sections 
where Asi-atics, Mongolian and Malay, will probably find a con- 
venient resting-place. The rapid movement, in the direction of 
unity of commerce among the human family, is not inconsistent 
with diversity of race, location and occupation, but is in accord- 
ance with them. Two modern agents — steam and electricity — 
greatly favor the movement, and we may confidently expect, not 
only a great extension and improvement of these agents, but the 
introduction of others of still greater potency. More than ever 
before, the near future is pregnant with great events. Even the 
next generation may cease to wonder at the advances, in power, 
of their fathers, in the much greater progress of their own time. 

With the present agencies, and in the present inchoate condi- 
tion of the unitary progress of the world's commerce, London 
comes nearer being its heart and brain than any other city. Until 
New York becomes more populous and rich, she cannot hope to 
give the chief impulse to the world's commerce. But, so surely 
as the laws of nature vindicate themselves, in the production of 
their recognized effects, so surely will New York supersede Lon- 
don. Before the year of grace, 1900, thirty- two years from this 
time (1868), the writer believes that New York will commence her 
career as the world's central city. 

How long will it be before one or more of her western children 
will dispute her supremacy and dethrone her ? 

Let us calculate the progress of the western movement of 
empire. Let us estimate the increase of population and wealth, 
as it flows westward, and learn, approximately, where will be the 
centre of its power in 50 years, in 75 years, in 100 years. 

As a basis of this calculation it may be well to note some prin- 
ciples and facts, either self-evident or too well established to need 
proof. 



*5 

Commerce will meet to exchange equivalent values and tonnage at 
the place most accessible and convenient. 

This principle applies as well to continents as to neighborhoods. 
It is a fact that home commerce, in every civilized nation, is many 
times more important and multiplied, in its transactions, than 
foreign commerce. This predominance, in amount and value, in 
countries of great extent and diversified productions, is great in 
proportion to range of climate and capacity to produce articles 
of commerce, and the natural and artificial facilities for interior 
transport ; and the predominance increases with the increase of 
civilization and accumulated wealth. 

Let us apply these principles. 

It is a well-established fact that the centre of industrial power, 
as well as the centre of population, of North America, is moving 
steadily and inevitably westward of the former and present loca- 
tion ; and it can hardly be doubted that it will continue to move 
in that direction until it shall have approached the centre of the 
natural productive power of the continent, and of its external 
relations. 

It has not been without controlling natural laws that London 
has become the principal centre of the world's commerce. If the 
various means of transportation are considered, it will be found 
that it is more convenient for the meeting of commercial pro- 
ducts exportable from all parts of the commercial world, than 
any other city ; that is to say, it is more nearly central to the 
present commercial power of the world than any other greet city. 
It is more central to the home commerce of the United Kingdom 
than any other commodious port. This is a great advantage, for 
the home trade of the British nation is very great ; many times 
greater than its foreign commerce. It is central between the 
commerce of the Eastern and Western Continents, considering 
how greatly the magnitude of that of the Eastern exceeds that of 
the Western. 

Will it remain central? 

There was a time when the island of Britain was on the extreme 
western verge of civilization and commerce; and, as said by 
Virgil, divided from the whole world besides. Since that time 



i6 

the tide of men and commerce has moved steadily westward. 
That tide, in constantly increasing volume and rapidity of flow, 
continues to move westward. This continuing, the certainty of 
its reaching a better centre of commercial power than London 
seems inevitable. But, to this end, it must cross the Atlantic. 
What are the indications that it will, on this side, find its destined 
place ? If it is admitted that London must be superseded, what 
intelligent man will hesitate to name New York as the successful 
rival? Forty years ago — in 1830 — London, with its numerous 
suburbs, contained about a million and a half of people. It has 
doubled its population since, making its period of duplication 
about forty years. New York, with its dependent population in- 
cluded, by which I mean those supported by the business of New 
York, and having their residence in suburban places near it, as 
well as in its corporate limits, will, in 1870, have a population 
greater than London in 1S30. New York appears to have a law of 
growth which doubles its population in from fourteen to sixteen 
years. If we allow London a future growth of two per cent, a 
year, and New York of five per cent., on a population of three 
million for the former, and half that number for the latter, the 
result will be in 18S5, fifteen years from this time, that London 
will contain^ in round numbers, four millions. New York will 
then contain over three millions. Allowing the same rate of 
increase up to 1900, the. two cities will be nearly equal, New 
York numbering 4,849,387, and London 4,823,514. The United 
States, at that time, will contain over seventy millions of people ; 
and the British Colonies, bordering the States on the north, will 
contain some ten millions. Together eighty millions. Long 
before that year Eastern Asia, embracing the great Empires of 
China and Japan, with all the coasts of the North Pacific Ocean, 
will have become practically nearer to New York than to London 
by means of railways across the American Continent. 

The centre of commercial power moving westward will, some- 
where, in time, be arrested. It will find a resting-place in North 
America ; for it is not to be supposed it will, in its westward 
course, cross the Pacific to the inferior races of Eastern Asia. 
Nor is it likely to reach and make a lodgment at any port on our 
Pacific coast. The vast arid and mountainous regions of the 



i 7 

western half of the continent, and the unequaled extent of fertile 
lands on the eastern half, fix its location, inevitably, on the latter. 
Will New York, then, be the permanent emporium of North 
America and the world ; or will its ultimate resting-place be 
westward of her position ? The writer believes, after giving New 
York the leadership over London, the final supremacy among the 
world's cities, will settle on a place by the shore of one of the 
great lakes, central to the greatest industrial and commercial 
capabilities, and the greatest extent of fertile lands in the North 
Temperate Zone of the Globe. 

But before entering on the consideration of the claims of an 
interior city to become, at some future day, the successful rival of 
New York, as the chief centre of the world's commerce, it will be 
in order to inquire on what grounds, beside the more rapid 
growth of New York in the past, it is claimed that it will become 
greater than London. 

The main, the controlling reason is that it is getting an in- 
creasingly larger home trade than London, because our home 
population, now greater, is increasing nearly three times as fast. 
It has been demonstrated, on our railway lines, that the way- 
traffic between city and city, and station and station, in all the 
settled portions of lines of any considerable extent, greatly pre- 
ponderates, in amount and profit, over the through traffic, even 
where the termini are great gathering points of commerce. No 
statistics at hand enable me to state what are the proportions of 
the home trade of New York compared with its foreign com- 
merce, or what proportion of its population is supported by the 
home trade, and what portion by foreign. If we estimate the 
proportion of the former to the latter as fifteen to one it will not 
be overstated. If this is so, then the forty-five millions of people 
in the United States and British Provinces, making New York 
their principal commercial metropolis, will be equal, for advancing 
its growth, to six hundred millions of outsiders living in foreign 
lands. It is because population and wealth increase much faster 
in our country than in England, and, in consequence, its home 
trade increases more rapidly, that New York grows faster than 
London, and not because it secures a greater amount of foreign 

2 



i8 

commerce ; for, in that respect, London is yet far ahead of New 
York. 

The indigenous commerce of the United Kingdom, which 
centres in London, may now be nearly as great as that of our 
States centreing in New York, as the number of people sustaining 
it is about in the proportion of 30 to 38. The industry of our 
people, however, is more productive than that of the people of 
the United Kingdom, as statistics show a duplication of our 
wealth in less than ten years, which is about half the time re- 
quired for doubling theirs. 

In the short period of thirty years allowed New York to be- 
come more populous than London, our numbers, now thirty-eight 
millions, will have augmented to over seventy-five millions ; while 
the United Kingdom will only, at its normal rate of increase, 
grow up from thirty millions to less than forty millions. Before 
the end of that period the British Provinces, beyond our 
north boundary, will have become a part of our commercial sys- 
tem, if not a component part of our nation. These Provinces 
will then contain nearly ten millions of very industrious, hardy 
and intelligent inhabitants, swelling our number for the home 
trade to eighty millions. Surely, in the light of all these conside- 
rations, it is not presumptuous or premature to forecast the supe- 
riority of New York to London, and its claim, in 1900, to be, 
more than any other city, the heart and brain of the commercial 
world. That a city of that character will, in the regular course of 
human events, exist, seems to me certain. That it will be devel- 
oped on the Continent of North America, and, finally, rest on the 
best point on the border of one of our great lakes, seems to me 
equally certain. 

The Continent of North America has a remarkable depression 
between the Appelachian Mountains, on the east, and the Rocky 
Mountain ranges, on the west, and extending from the Gulf of 
Mexico, on the south, to the Arctic Sea, on the north. This con- 
stitutes the great interim- plain of the Continent, and embraces 
most of the elements provided by nature to sustain the bulk of the 
population hereafter to inhabit the Continent. In all its immense 
length and breadth it is interrupted by no mountain barrier, and 



*9 

has, within its eastern portion, no barren waste. Almost every- 
where it is fertile and well-watered. To enable commerce among 
its people Lo be more rapid and cheap, it is provided with navi- 
gable rivers and lakes to the extent of tens of thousands of miles, 
and its unobstructed surface may be traversed everywhere by 
cheaply-made railroads. 

The first and greatest necessity of man is food. At what point 
or points in the interior plain of North America, can this be ob- 
tained, in quantity to feed a large city, at the cheapest rate? It 
seems to be proved, by the results of the last twenty-five years, 
that the two most prominent of these points are Chicago and 
Toledo ; as these have been the primary gathering ports of the 
greatest amounts of the most needful articles of food; and they 
seem to have such commanding positions for commerce, interior 
and exterior to our country, as to justify the claim to precedence 
over all others. The annual receipts of breadstuffs at these cities, 
for export, has, for several years, exceeded seventy millions of 
bushels. At ten bushels to the individual, this would feed seven 
million people. That number, therefore, in addition to their 
present population, could have been fed, in these cities, at less 
cost than at any other place to which this grain was transported, 
by all the cost of that transportation. New York, Boston, and other 
Eastern cities, consumed and distributed most of these seventy 
million bushels of food, and their various industries were sus- 
tained by it, at a cost of not less than ten million dollars beyond 
its value, in these interior cities. If these industries could have 
been carried on as well in Toledo and Chicago, as in New York 
and Boston, those engaged in them, in those exterior cities, lost 
the ten million, in consequence of not being at the place where 
the cheapest bread could have been obtained. But, breadstuffs 
form but one article of necessary food. Next to them comes 
meat. It will be a moderate estimate to rate the animal food sent 
annually from Chicago and Toledo, and consisting of cattle, 
sheep, live hogs, dressed hogs, beef, pork, cut meats, lard, butter, 
etc., as amply sufficient to supply the seven million people which 
their surplus breadstuffs provides for. These articles, valued at 
Chicago and Toledo, at forty-five million dollars, probably cost 



20 

the consumers, in the Eastern and European cities, not less than 
fifty-five million, making another ten million added to the cost 
of living in those cities that might have been saved, if the con- 
sumers had lived in, or near, these lake cities. These and other 
estimates are not designed to be exact, but sufficiently so to 
justify the position we take. Doubtless, many of the consumers, 
in Eastern and European cities, can afford to pay this additional 
cost of food, in consideration of the more perfect organization of 
labor, and other advantages, in the older cities. If, then, we 
modify our estimate of the loss of the seven million excrescent 
population that are fed on far-fetched food, and make it half what 
is set down above, so as to reduce it to ten million, the truth 
will, probably, be understated. 

According to Dr. Chalmers " the bulkiness of human food forms 
one of those obstructions in the working of the economic machine 
which tends to equalize the population of every country with its 
food-producing power." Converting the corn and the grass crops 
into animal food has, measurably, removed the obstacle of bulki- 
ness to the extensive export, from the Lake States, to the more 
expensively-fed population of other countries. Still the fact 
remains that the consumers of this animal food, and of the seventy 
million bushels of our breadstuffs, in Great Britain and in our 
Eastern States, year by year, must pay the cost of transportation, 
and profits, from Chicago and Toledo, over and above what would 
be the cost to them, if located in these cities. It is not too high 
an estimate to put this additional cost at thirty-three and one- 
third per cent. The consumers inevitably gravitate to the great 
centres, where food is gathered in, and there pursue their avo- 
cations to better advantage than in the cities which send far for 
their food. It is important properly to estimate the rapid growth 
of interior cities, and their ability, in consequence, to consume a 
large portion of the surplus of agriculture which is now so great. 
The lake cities, in position and climate, are unequaled for the 
advantages they offer the immigrant. They are central to the 
best regions of the earth for the growth of the best fruits, grains 
and animals, to feed men ; and, with these advantages, and a 
healthful climate, may claim to be -the nurseries of the densest 



population. The food, as heretofore, will attract to it the mouths 
to feed upon it. Labor will seek cheap food with good wages. 
It has always done so. The lake cities, although but germs of 
what they are to be, have exhibited, in their growth, the truth of 
this principle. No other commercial centres have been so rapidly 
peopled, in their early life. The attainment of cheap land and 
cheap food has been the chief cause of this large increase. 

Next to food, as a prime necessity, comes clothing. The chief 
materials of this are wool, cotton, lint and leather, for all con- 
ditions of people. Wool and lint will be bought cheaper in the 
lake cities than in the Atlantic cities, and raw cotton as cheaply, 
in Chicago and Toledo, as at any leading eastern city. As the 
operative will be fed on cheaper food, the manufacturers of these 
articles will, for this and other reasons hereafter given, find these 
lake cities a good location for factories. Situated centrally to 
the best grass and grain growing region of the continent, Chicago 
and Toledo will, naturally, concentrate in their markets a large 
portion of the wool grown in the country. The production of 
flax and hemp will, probably, in proportion to their use, be as 
greatlv within the commercial control of these cities as that of 
wool, the climate and soil being well adapted to their growth. 
Cotton will, probably, in a few years, be grown west of the Missis- 
sippi, as largely as east of it, and will find its primary markets, in 
largest quantity, at Memphis, Vicksburg, New Orleans, and other 
favorable points on the banks of the western tributaries of the 
great river. From these cities it can be delivered to the manu- 
facturer at Chicago and Toledo at less cost than to the manufac- 
turing cities of New England and New York. 

Next in importance to cheap food and clothing in determining 
the movement of population, and the points where men will con- 
centrate in greatest numbers, are cheap building materials and 
cheap fuel. Where in the world has mom wealth of lumber been 
placed on the great highways of commerce than in the pine-lands 
along all the shores of the great lakes ? Where a finer region of 
hard woods than stretches for hundreds of miles in all directions 
from the west end of Lake Erie ? Where is brick and lime 
cheaper or stone more easy to quarry than everywhere upon the 



borders of these lakes ? In short, where upon the globe can 
human labor provide more cheaply all needful shelter for its 
working hives? But in this zone of excessive temperature, cheap 
building materials might not alone aid to fix the densest popu- 
lation upon it were fuel scarce. Now in the early settlement of a 
wooded country, cheap lumber implies cheap wood for fuel ; and 
long before the swelling tide of settlement could make this scarce 
the geologist has indicated the existence of boundless stores of 
coal all along the line of the favored zone of population into 
which we have only to enter as into a cellar full-stored for us. 

The coal-fields which seem destined to supply the States 
between the Ohio river and the lakes, are : 

First, those of Pennsylvania, which, in quality and quantity, 
and variety of qualities, are not excelled in the world. No other 
hard coals have been discovered in this country equal to the 
anthracite coals of Pennsylvania. By the Ohio river these coals 
are delivered at the lowest rates along its shores. A short rail- 
road transit brings them to the free waters of the lakes. 

Second, the great coal-field of the State of Ohio, stretching 
from near its north-east corner to near its most southerly point, 
and embracing at various points the most valuable and varied 
qualities of bituminous coals found west of Pennsylvania. 
" Briar Hill " coal is a standard brand of this coal, and equally 
valuable for making iron, or for making heat. In places, as at 
Straitsville and the Hocking Valley end of this field, the coal 
occurs in beds of such thickness, excellence, and unequalled 
facility for quarrying, that the miners are enabled to put it on 
board cars at a cost twenty-five per cent, below the cost at any 
other mines.* 

Third, the coal-field of South Indiana, from which an excellent 
quality of block coal has been obtained. It has entered into 
effective competition with the Pennsylvania and Ohio coals only 
in the immediate neighborhood of where it is quarried. The 

* In Vol. II. of the State Geologist's Report on the Geology of Ohio, " the great vein" of 
this coal-field is thus alluded to: " This is probably the most interesting and important of all 
our coal seams. It attains greater thickness, occupies a wider area, and in its different out- 
crops and phases supplies a larger amount of good fuel than any other. . _ . . South of the 
national road this vein acquires such magnitude and excellence that it quite overshadows all 
the other coal seams of the State." 



23 

cost of quarrying this coal will probably prevent its competing to 
any great extent with the coals of Pennsylvania and Ohio. 

Fourth, the coal-fields of Illinois, which do not develop, either 
in quality or cheapness to compete, even in Chicago, with coals 
that come from Pennsylvania and central Ohio. 

( 'lcveland, which is shown by the census of 1870 to be nearer the 
center of population (if we include the Canadian Dominion with 
our own country) than any other large city, * has felt the impetus 
to her manufactures by the receipt of cheap coal to an extraordi- 
nary degree. She draws her iron from Lake Superior, to the 
north of us, and from interior mines south and southeast. It has 
been found more profitable to bring the coal to the lake shore to 
meet the ores that come from various sources by water than to 
ship the ores inland to meet the coal. So Cleveland has gained 
heavily on Pittsburg as a point for manufacturing iron ; first, for 
the reason just stated, and secondly, because the facilities of 
shipping the manufactured iron by water as well as by land give 
the lake cities an additional advantage. This fact shows the 
power of the lake towns to draw business from the interior towns 
by means of the competition of the two rival systems of transpor- 
tation by water and land; the lakes showing more power to pro- 
duce this result than the rivers. Cleveland has possessed both 
inherent and adventitious power to make the most of her advan- 
tage over Pittsburg. The adventitious power has been the capital 
which her early reputation for beauty brought her by the influx of 
wealthy business men from smaller surrounding towns, and the 
large investment of that capital in the very valuable iron mines of 
Lake Superior. That iron, and her cheap coal, have been the 
most important factors in the rapid increase of her manufactures, 
population and wealth. Her proximity to the oil fields, and the 
immense development of the manufactures of that product have 
also added very largely to her prosperity. In the oil trade she is 
likely to retain her lead, as compared with any of the lake cities. 
But in the manufactures which are built up by cheapest coal and 

* The center of population of the United States alone by the census of 1870 is shown to be 
directly south of Toledo about 175 miles. Taking in the Canadas as .1 part <>f the great com- 
mercial system treated of by the author, would move the center of population to near Cleve- 
land. 



24 

iron, in connection with the greatest facilities for the cheapest distri- 
bution of the manufactured articles, she must slowly succumb to 
such points as Toledo and Chicago. These cities have the same 
water facilities for procuring iron ores; Toledo has the same 
advantages of cheap coal, and both cities have superior advan- 
tages for the distribution by land of the manufactured products. 
This advantage it needs but a glance at the map to perceive. 
And when in addition it is observed that Toledo has artificial 
water-ways, south and southwest by many hundred miles of canals, 
as well as. by a complete system of radiating railways, the advan- 
tage will appear more complete. 

By rail the hard coals of Pennsylvania are nearer to Cleveland 
than Toledo by 120 miles, and nearer to Cleveland than Chicago 
by 350 miles, yet the fact that the anthracite coal supplies of all 
three cities are mostly laid in during the season of navigation, 
shows the essential power of the lakes to give the cities on their 
borders an advantage over those which have not free waters to 
connect their commerce ; for by virtue of the grain and produce 
which seek the water for cheap transportation eastward in the warm 
season, a fleet of steam and sail vessels is in constant use to con- 
vey these products to Buffalo, Oswego and the St. Lawrence river. 
These vessels, which can only be freighted to any great extent at 
primary receiving points for bulky products, must seek return 
freights. Now, it is well known that the shipments from an agri- 
cultural country like that west of Lake Erie are far more bulky 
than the more valuable freights which are exchanged for them. 
Therefore, cargoes which will fill up in ballast like coal are sought 
and carried back from Buffalo to Toledo at mere nominal rates. 
Thus the hard coals from Pennsylvania are laid down as cheaply in 
Toledo, and almost as cheaply in Chicago as in Cleveland. In 
soft or bituminous coals the latter city has had one clear advan- 
tage" for the past fifteen years by her proximity to a very valuable 
coal deposit south and southeast of her, for the shipment of which 
she is the nearest port, and for its profitable use in manufactures 
the nearest point which has a choice of water and land for the 
distribution of its products. 

The growth of the city of Columbus, Ohio, as affected by the 



25 

opening of the coal mines of the counties southeast of her, and 
the construction, but a few years si-nce, of the Columbus & Hock- 
ing Valley Railroad to these mines, has been most suggestive of 
the power of cheap coal to develop manufactures. Rut already 
the very superior quality of that coal and the almost uncqualed 
facility its beds afford for cheap quarrying has developed the 
necessity of an access to water-ways to widen the market for it 
by its cheaper distribution. For that purpose a direct, almost 
an air-line, railroad is now being built from Columbus to Toledo, 
on trades that offer the minimum of impediment to cheap trans- 
portation. Another is projected and under way direct from the 
Perry county mines to Toledo. With these roads completed. 
Chicago, during the summer season, can be supplied with coal 
shipped from the railroad companies docks at Toledo more cheaply 
than by rail all the way from the mines. That coal must be cheaper 
at the point from which it is shipped than at the port where it is 
discharged is self-evident. Whichever way this coal may go by 
rail from the mines to Chicago it must traverse from 150 to 200 
miles more of rail track than to get it to the company's docks at 
Toledo. No railway can carry coal per ton 150 miles as cheaply 
as it can be carried from Toledo to Chicago by vessel during the 
summer months. 

Rut it may be suggested that Chicago is not dependent on the 
Pennsylvania, or the Northern Ohio, or the Hocking Valley and 
Straitsville coal fields for her supply. This is partly true and 
partly not true. It is true that coal fields are being developed in 
Southern Illinois and Indiana from which she has hoped to receive 
a copious supply of cheap fuel. But it is not true that their 
quality has been such as to relieve her of the necessity of depend- 
ing principally on coals shipped from Buffalo and Cleveland. 
And it is a significant fact that all the railways leading to Chicago 
from Ohio carry coal past the coal fields of Indiana and Illinois to 
that city; and the railroads that traverse the coal fields of these latter 
States do not bring any coat eastward. Toledo, then, when her 
direct coal roads are completed, may fairly claim to be stronger, by 
virtue of cheaper fuel, than Chicago. 

In alluding so much in detail to the power of the Pennsylvania 



26 

and Ohio coal fields to promote the prosperity of the ports of 
Lake Erie, which are to be made their principal depots, it may be 
proper to repeat that the varied good qualities of these coals, as 
well as the vastness of the beds and their easy access for quarry- 
ing, is the conclusive reason why they push their way past the 
coals of Indiana and Illinois. They not only embrace all the 
qualities most essential for domestic use, and the ordinary uses in 
manufacturing, but some of them can be used without cokeing in 
the manufacture of iron, as tested with most satisfactory results 
with the Hocking Valley. coal in the iron furnaces of Columbus, 
Ohio. Some of these coals are also among the best for making 
gas. 

If it shall be proved that the best qualities of coal are likely 
to be permanently cheaper at Toledo than at Chicago, and 
cheaper at the interior manufacturing centers east of Toledo than 
in those west of Toledo, it will add a heavy weight of industrial 
power on the side of Toledo. 

As between Cleveland and Toledo, no advantage as to cheap 
fuel can be claimed for the latter. They are simply alike in that 
respect. It is by virtue of its position as a gathering and dis- 
tributing point of exchange that Toledo's superiority is marked. 
And it has one other natural advantage over Cleveland in its 
twenty miles of water front on a broad river, protected from lake 
storms and easy of access from the lake ; while that city is 
cramped in all its water commerce by the inconveniences of a 
tortuous narrow river channel upon which business is done, or 
else upon the dangerous outer docks of a tempestuous lake shore. 
This advantage of dock room and sea room for vessels will alone 
exercise a controlling influence in giving Toledo a steadily in- 
creasing power over the lake coal trade. It has another decided 
advantage over its thrifty rival in being on the direct route, both 
by water and railway, of the commerce between the Canadian 
Dominion and our most populous Western States. It is the in- 
evitable focus of that trade. 

Transportation for the productions of the earth, and for the 
works of man, embraces all that can be claimed of progress for 
the development of cities from barbarism to civilization. Trans- 



2 7 

portation, by land and water, in the various modes now in use, 
and hereafter to be brought into use, is the instrumentality which, 
in connection with those already presented, will determine the 
location of the future greatest city. Its location must have advan- 
tages for the construction and use of the best instruments for 
transportation, by land and by water, in all directions. It must 
be the most convenient place for the meeting of the greatest bulk 
and amount of commodities, and the greatest number of people. 
It will be where land and water transportation may conveniently 
meet, aid, and compete with each other ; and where the world's 
commerce can make its exchanges with most equal advantage to 
all lands, in proportion to their relative commercial importance. 
The necessity for uniting land and water ways for commerce 
narrows the question of locality to the great lakes and great rivers 
of the North American plain. Which has the greater power to 
control the direction of commerce ? Assuredly commerce will tend 
in greatest volume where the competition of the tic:' systems is most 
effective. 

The lake waters have manifested the superiority of their trans- 
portation power by building cities on their borders more rapidly 
than have the rivers. The two leading cities of the two systems 
of water transportation, Chicago and St. Louis, increased in popu- 
lation, from i860 to 1870, as follows: Chicago, 189,528 — 172 per 
cent.; St. Louis, 150,091 — no per cent. 

The five largest of our lake cities, Chicago, Buffalo, Cleveland, 
Detroit, and Milwaukee numbered, in i860, 324,620 ; in 1870, 
657,i55- 

The five largest river cities of the interior, St. Louis, Cincinnati, 
Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Alleghany City, numbered, in i860, 
467,759 ; and in 1870, 767,272. 

Increase of lake cities, 332,53^, being 102 per cent. Increase 
of river cities, 299,513, being 60 per cent. 

Previous census returns, since lake cities have had any commercial 
importance, were not less favourable to them. And it may be borne 
in mind, in connection with the relative percentage of growth be- 
tween i860 and 1870, that the river cities had a very great, though 
transitory advantage, in being made, to a much greater extent than 



28 

their lake rivals, the depots and disbursing points for the vast 
expenditures of the war of the rebellion. These expenditures in 
many of these cities built up great manufacturing interests that 
have become important factors in their continued prosperity . 

Looking at permanent, and not at transitory, causes of growth, 
the river cities, however noble the size they may attain, may now 
be fairly ruled out of the list of final competitors for the highest 
position. Of the lake cities Milwaukee and Detroit are evidently 
barred out of the race by the superior power of position that 
Chicago and Toledo occupy in relation to each of them. Toledo, 
though the last to be ranked among the important cities of the 
lakes, in consequence of the dense timber-land surroundings 
which delayed her early growth, is now springing into the com- 
mercial arena with a strength of growth not surpassed in the 
present decade by even Chicago. 

The author believes that the lakes will attract to their borders 
the densest population of the Continent. Instinctively people 
love an expanse of water. They take pleasure in the sight ; they 
enjoy the fish in the catching and eating; they delight to breathe 
the invigorating air purified by contact with its surface ; they 
profit by the cheapness of transportation from city to city along 
the shores, and by the supply of fish-food grown without cost. 
These lakes hold a central position in the most productive por- 
tion of the Continent. With the noble St. Lawrence outlet to 
the Atlantic they extend westward one-third of the distance to 
the Pacific. Their future commerce is of necessity to be inti- 
mately connected with that of Europe, with whose commerce we 
can connect by water only. To make this cheap, expeditious, 
and direct with the vast future pooulation of this interior plain 
will call forth all the inventive genius and practical skill of 
Europe and America. More than half of all our foreign com- 
merce is now and probably ever will be with Europe. Of this 
a very large proportion will ultimately communicate with the 
interior through the St. Lawrence river and its ship canals, to and 
from the lake cities. 

If it is true that manufacturing industries will gather where 
food and fuel and raw products to be transformed are cheapest, 



2$ 

and where the routes of transportation are the most varied, exten- 
sive and economical, it will be hard to find any other points so 
commanding in all these respects as Toledo and Chicago. We 
claim the better position for the former, because it is believed 
that the center of the industrial power of the country will remain 
east of her longitude. In making this claim it is not necessary 
to underestimate the great destiny of such points as St. Louis, 
Louisville, Cincinnati and Cleveland. St. Louis and Cincinnati 
were both important and relatively wealthy cities when Chicago 
and Toledo sprung into existence. Chicago has almost overtaken 
the former, and Toledo is gaining rapidly on the latter. The race 
will in the future be between giants, and whichever in the end 
shall be least among these will at least be great among other 
cities. If the struggle may be narrowed down to the point which 
may prove strongest on Lake Erie, as against the point which has 
become strongest on Lake Michigan, the combined strength of 
Cleveland, Toledo and Detroit may be considered a unit as 
against Chicago. The three cities number now nearly the same 
population as Chicago. It is believed that in this decade they 
will show an aggregate percentage of growth equal to that of 
Chicago; though during the two preceding decades the growth of 
the latter city was much more rapid. After 1880 the author 
believes the cities of Lake Erie will show, and permanently 
maintain, the more rapid ratio of growth; and mutually strength- 
ening each other, that they will so concentrate industrial power 
upon Lake Erie that one of them will, in the end, rival and 
dominate Chicago. 

In the climate where human brain and muscle have greatest 
activity and endurance, and where things called for by a high 
state of civilization can be brought together for use and exchange 
with least expenditure of time and money, the ultimate city of the 
human family will be developed. In its early life it will be seen 
to grow rapidly, by reason of its facility to procure cheap food, 
clothing, houses and fuel. These advantages continuing, and a 
higher life t han a merely comfortable existence, procurable as well 
there as el sewhere, its growth will have no check, of long duration ; 
but the law of progress, as shown in its first series of years, and 



decades of years, will, probably, be the law of its maturing growth, 
for a period not easy to estimate. 

The climate of the lake borders is invigorating and adapted to 
the best races of men. The breezes over the pure waters of these 
inland seas, and from the cultivated plains of Illinois, and the 
well-drained woodlands and fields of Ohio and Michigan, will 
possess the tonic power of the ocean winds. For healthfulness, 
the positions at the heads of Lakes Michigan and Erie, being 
elevated 600 feet above the ocean, are believed to be equal to that 
of New York. For transportation by water, in all directions, it 
may admit of question whether the advantage is on the side of 
the great Atlantic city or the rivals, hereafter to be developed, on 
the lakes. If New York claims to have all the oceans and their 
connecting navigable waters, the lake cities may claim that, be- 
fore New York shall have brought the centre of the world's com- 
merce from London, a good navigable passage for lake ships to 
the ocean will have been made for the cities of the great lakes, so as 
to place them in a position to participate in foreign commerce. But 
for interior commerce, which all concede to be far more important 
than foreign, the water channels, by lake, river and canal, which 
are immediately available for Chicago and Toledo, give these 
cities a great advantage over New York, for they extend in all 
directions, and have a natural concentration at these points. 
New York has only a water channel, for interior commerce, in one 
direction, to-wit : northward, up the Hudson river; yet this one 
channel of connection with the far interior by means of an arti- 
ficial water-course, from the Hudson river to Lake Erie, was the 
main cause of its rapid domination over other Atlantic cities in 
commerce and capital. This river, with its entering canals, forms 
almost the only water-way it has for interior commerce. 

Transport and interchanges by railways and wagon-roads 
may be made from Chicago and Toledo, to nearly all points of 
the compass, almost without obstruction, for long distances. Rail- 
roads are most naturally placed, and most profitably used, by the 
sick- of the best water-ways. Both these means of transportation 
seek the lowest levels, preferring to avoid the task of working 
against gravitation ; commercial products, like other matters, 



3' 

choosing a down grade rather than an up grade. The Appa- 
lachian range of mountains separate a mere margin of our 
country, lying east of them, from the great body of our lands 
spread Out westward. New York occupies a central position in 
this marginal section. Two low passes through the mountains- 
one by the Mohawk river, and the other by Lake Champlain— are 
the only routes, unobstructed by mountain ranges, which are open 
to her choice, to. afford her railway communication with the body 
of the nation, west of the mountains. These passes form her best 
channels of land transport, as well as the only channels of water 
transport, with the great central plain. Placed on the ocean 
border, New York can only have a little more than half the land, 
within any given radius, from which to obtain trade, which Chicago 
and Toledo have. These cities command the lowest passage-ways 
between the lake (St. Lawrence) basin and that of the Mississippi 
waters. The summit-level of the canal and railroad connecting 
Toledo and Cincinnati is but 400 feet above these cities which are 
on the same plane. The Wabash canal and railroad which con- 
nect Toledo with the Wabash valley, rise but 200 feet above the 
lake in a distance of no miles, before they descend towards the 
centre of the Mississippi basin, by an almost imperceptible grade. 
The margin of the lake basin is but a few miles from Chicago, and 
rises but 24 feet above the lake. Towards these low valleys the 
commerce of the country naturally gravitates. Along these chan- 
nels the commerce between the great interior river system and 
the great lakes naturally flows. The river cities, Cincinnati, 
Louisville, Evansville, Paducah, Cairo, Memphis, St. Louis, Alton, 
Quincy, Keokuk, Burlington, Dubuque, Davenport, etc., will use 
these natural channels for their rapidly growing commerce with 
and through the great lakes. This advantage, alone, would secure 
to Chicago and Toledo pre-eminence among the lake cities. 

Let us go back a little in our argument. Although London is 
now a greater centre of the commercial power of the world than 
any other city, it is only measurably so, in a unitary sense. The 
organization of society, as one whole, is yet too imperfect to call 
for the use of one all- directing head, and one central moving 
heart. In many things Paris claims pre-eminence, and many 



Other cities exist almost independent of London. It will only be 
the ultimate great city that will fully unite in itself the functions 
analogous to those of the human head and heart, in relation to 
the whole family of man. That ultimate crowning city will be in 
the interior of North America. " Earth's noblest empire is her 
last." Berkley was a true prophet. The centre of commercial 
power will carry with it the centre of moral and intellectual pre- 
dominance. Its movement, controled by nature's great law, is 
steadily westward. Its semblance, forecasting the future, has 
arrived in England, and exists in London. Thence, westward, it 
can find no resting-place until it reaches New York. That city 
will stand, for a time, the precursor, the herald, of the final great 
city of the world, which, within a century, or a little more, from 
this time, will have been established in the interior, where Chicago 
or Toledo now forms its nucleus. The same foreshadowing 
grounds of belief which compel conviction of the future pre- 
eminence of New York, exist and are potent in favor of the 
interior city as compared with the Atlantic capital. One hundred 
years is allowed for the building of the world's commercial capital 
in the world's best region. One hundred years, at our previous 
rate of increase, will give four duplications, and six hundred 
millions ! Allowing, however, thirty-three and one-third years 
for future duplications, instead of twenty-five, and we have three 
hundred millions as the result ! Of these not less than two hundred 
and thirty millions will inhabit the interior plain, and the region 
west of it ; and not over seventy millions will inhabit the margin 
east of the Appalachians. What proportion of the two hundred 
and thirty millions will prefer to transact business with each other 
by crossing the mountains, carrying with them the articles to be 
exchanged, to New York, rather than to . meet each other at the 
most conveniently located city in their midst? The productions 
of these two hundred and thirty millions, intended for exchange 
with each other, will meet at the most convenient point, central in 
time and cost, to their homes and exchangeable products. 

Where will that point be ? Chicago and Toledo are believed 
to be the true claimants for this high destiny. Which of these 
has the best position to become the ultimate great city ? In 



33 

estimating the relative claims of these two young cities to have 
the greater future, no concession is made to the present popular 
opinion which would, without doubt, decide in favour of the 
larger city. 1 believe Toledo occupies a better position. Some 
reasons for this belief have been submitted. 

It seems, on examining the two cities on the map of the United 
States, that Chicago is more central for gathering in north- 
western commerce. I concede this. If there were no counter- 
balancing power in the commerce of the States, east of Toledo ; 
of the country east and north of the great lakes, and of the 
Atlantic, on all its extended shores, and a rival o\ Chicago at the 
west end of Lake Superior, to come into the account, Toledo 
would not be thought of as a successful rival of Chicago. But, 
for many years, the centre of industrial power of the world will 
be not only east of Toledo but east of New York. As before 
remarked, it is endeavoring to establish itself in London. It 
will make a stronger and more successful effort to establish itself 
in New York. In thirty years New York will become the 
acknowledged successful rival of London. Within the next fifty 
years it will have established its superiority overfall former rivals. 
It will then experience the effects of the inevitable law of western 
progress. The centre of the world's industrial power will be on 
its way westward of New York. After leaving that city, where 
will be its resting-place ? 

The centre of the population of the United States, in 1790, 
was in Maryland. It has since moved steadily in a direction 
north of west. In 1850 it was near Pittsburg. In i860 it was in 
south-eastern Ohio. If the Provinces north of us are included, 
the centre of population is now* not far from Canton, Stark 
County, Ohio. If there were no ocean commerce to be taken 
into the calculation, Buffalo would now be as near the centre 
of the industrial power of our country as any other city, having 
decided commercial advantages. When the centre of the indus- 
trial power of the world shall tremble in the balance between 
New York and its western rival, Buffalo will be too distant from 
the great river commerce and the great railway concentration of 

* Written in 1868. 



u 

the interior plain ; and the centre of commercial power of the 
continent will be too far west of it. The movement of this centre 
of population and industrial power is, undeniably, in the direction 
of Toledo. Before reaching Toledo there is no position, on or 
near its movement, so favorable to a great concentration of com- 
merce, as to arrest its progress. Cleveland will be the least 
distant, but her advantages are obviously less than those of 
Toledo. It will probably be conceded that, if the centre of the 
industrial power of the world ever leaves New York to establish 
a rival city in the North American plain, it will come as far west 
as Toledo. Will it move farther ; and, if it does, will it rest in 
Chicago ? The reasons for making Toledo its first and perma- 
nent resting-place are numerous. The centre of industrial power 
will for many years be nearer to Toledo than to Chicago One 
hundred and ten miles will have to be passed over; and when, if 
ever, that distance is accomplished, Toledo will have the weight 
of commercial power on her side. All the time when this centre 
is approaching Toledo from the east, and when, if ever, it pro- 
ceeds so far west as to be nearer Chicago the advantage will be 
with Toledo. A line drawn on the map equi-distant from Chicago 
and Toledo, and bearing northward and southward will, extended 
northward, cut Lake Michigan west of its outlet, and also west of 
the outlet of Lake Superior. Extended southwardly it goes 
through Indianapolis and Nashville to Pensacola, on the gulf. 
All the country east of this middle line is nearer Toledo than 
Chicago, and other things being equal should prefer it as the con- 
centrating point of its commerce. 

It will be seen on inspection of this line of equal distance that 
it shows all the great lake waters, except Lake Michigan, nearer 
Toledo than Chicago ; Lakes Erie and Ontario, by over 700 miles; 
Lake Huron, on the average of its shores, of some 200 miles, and 
Lake Superior about 60 miles. This is a great advantage, for the 
annual commerce of these lakes (including Michigan), already in its 
infancy, exceeds in value one thousand millions of dollars. It 
employs over two thousand vessels, aggregating nearly one million 
tons, transporting annually (as represented by Alvin Bronson, a 
high authority) twenty-eight million tons. This commerce will 



35 

be duplicated several times before the time to which our investi- 
gation is carried ; and its improved and ample water-way to the 
ocean will have been a long time in use. The interior navigation 
furnished bv lake waters nearer Toledo than Chicago, counting 
distance along the shores, measures more than four thousand miles. 

From the line of equal distance eastward, Toledo has, nearer 
to her, nearly all the Canadas, all the British Provinces east of the 
Canadas, two-thirds of the lower peninsula of Michigan, more 
than one-third of Indiana, three-fourths of Kentucky, half of 
Tennessee, more than half of Alabama, and all of the sixteen 
States eastward of those named above. Nearly all the great 
•centres of business on this Continent lie within easier communi- 
cation with Toledo, to-wit : Portland, Boston, Providence, New- 
York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, Richmond, Charleston, 
Savannah, Louisville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Buffalo, 
Toronto, Rochester, Albany, Montreal, Quebec, etc. ; while 
Chicago only has within its limits (I say its limits, for it will be 
noted that I am dividing the future claim to final pre-eminence 
in the commerce of the world, between these embryo cities), New 
Orleans, Mobile, Memphis St. Louis, Milwaukee, San Francisco, 
Sacramento, and many minor cities growing up rapidly on the 
Mississippi and Missouri rivers. Of ocean commerce Toledo will 
have on her side that of the Atlantic, and Chicago on her side 
that of the Pacific. Supposing, then, these lake cities competing, 
in the final struggle, to become the greatest central emporium 
of commerce, the balance of industrial power seems altogether 
favorable to the more eastern one. * 

What are the special claims of Chicago ? First and greatest is 
a population seven times as large as that of Toledo, which, with 
the prestige its more rapid development has given it, has enabled 
it to concentrate capital and influence only to be equaled by its 
rival after a struggle of many years. Up to this time Chicago has 
had a great advantage over Toledo in the more rapid develop- 
ment of the country brought within her commercial control, bv 



* The strons; errowth of the fine interior i itj of Indianapolis, with no water conne 

commerce, and situated neartjr equi-distant from Toledo, St. L and* hii igo, illu ti 

power of railways to create minor foci of exchanges by virtue of the same law Of Ctm 
to which we have before referred. 



36 

being made suddenly the focus of a complete system of railways 
constructed with a rapidity never before equaled in the history 
of public improvements. These railways, traversing for hundreds 
of miles, in many directions, fertile prairie lands, requiring but a 
minimum of labor to bring them under cultivation, have been, 
in various ways, the means of effecting a wonderfully rapid set- 
tlement of those vast prairies, so that they have already, to a great 
extent, approached the maximum of their products exportable 
through Chicago. Toledo, On the other hand, has been surrounded 
by a dense forest of timber for hundreds of miles, which the tide 
of immigration for many years avoided. The demand for timber 
is now opening this forest of rich lands to cultivation, with profit 
to the owners ; so that, with the extension of railways in progress 
and about to be constructed for the benefit of Toledo, a more even 
race with the prairie city may be relied on. Indeed, it will be 
strange if the woodland city does not soon exhibit decided proofs 
of a higher rate of progress. 

The population of the whole country, including the British 
Provinces north of our boundary, will exceed eighty millions 
a.d. 1900. To bring it up to that number will not require a pro- 
gress as rapid as the average rate since 1790. Of this number 
fifty million at least will be nearer Toledo and Chicago than to 
New York. If foreign commerce were out of the question the 
principal exchanges of the country would be made in Toledo 
rather than in New York, for the plain reason that they could be 
made quicker and cheaper. But New York will then be nearer 
Europe, and all the commerce of the Atlantic south of Quebec. 
The comparison will stand as follows : — Toledo with the advan- 
tage of being the more natural centre for fifty million at home ; 
and New York with the special advantage of say four hundred 
million of foreign population, distant from one thousand to 
twenty thousand miles. Supposing the home trade to be 
worth fifteen times as much, in proportion to population, 
as the foreign commerce, the number of people, nearer To 
ledo, will equal three hundred and fifty million of foreigners 
in excess of the number actually nearer New York. New York 
would possess the advantage of having already the capital 



37 

and other appliances to perform the duties of chief city of the 
world. What portion of the foreign commerce may fall to the 
share of the interior city before the year 1900 cannot be estimated, 
and, for that reason, is left out of the comparison. 

It is not claimed that Toledo or Chicago will lead our great 
Atlantic city in a life-time. But how will they stand in 50 years 
— -Anno Domini 1920? Before that year there will be several 
Pacific railways spanning the Continent, and several large cities 
on the Pacific side of the Continent, gathering in the commerce 
of the North Pacific, and prepared to carry on a great commerce 
with the leading cities of the interior plain, and of the Atlantic 
border. The commerce gathered in the Pacific cities will meet 
somewhere the gathered commerce of the Atlantic, centred now 
chiefly in New York, Boston and Montreal. The best portions 
of Europe and Asia will strike hands over our Continent. Where 
will be the place of their meeting ? Will it be New York ? Our 
home commercial system will then embrace about one hundred 
and thirty million. Of this number there will live not less than 
ninety-five million nearer Toledo than to New York ! and some 
thirty-five million nearer to New York : giving an excess of home 
population of sixty million in favor of Toledo — equal, in com- 
mercial power, to nine hundred million foreigners.. New York 
will not then monopolize our foreign commerce. All the com- 
merce commanded by the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Hudson's 
Bay may be more conveniently brought into connection with 
Toledo. There will then be the Pacific commerce, in the track 
of which, between the two oceans, Toledo and Chicago will be 
situated. It is not for us to know what extension of the commerce 
of eastern Asia with the United States will take place in the 
coming fifty years. It seems probable that there will be a large 
migration from Japan, China, and possibly India, to. the western 
coast of our country. Our undeveloped resources call for all the 
labor and skill which can be brought from the over-peopled lands of 
\.sia and Europe. Hunger is an imperative master which will bring 
to the land of plenty many millions now suffering under its power. 
It would be to leave an important element out of the calculation 
not to give much weight to the effect this anticipated migration of 
the Asiatics may have in determining the position of the great cen- 



38 

tral city of 1970 — or, indeed, of the city of 1920. The coming 50 
years will probably do more for the concentration of the world's 
traffic than all the years of the past. It is but 61 years since 
Fulton demonstrated the practicability of using steam as a motive 
power in navigation, and it was not till many years after that it 
became much more than an experiment. Now all waters are 
Avitnesses of its triumphs. Steam-propelled cars and ships will, 
before the 50 years shall have passed, bring within their power the 
great body of the world's commerce, and cause all races of men 
to fraternize in commercial transactions. It is but 40 years since 
the first locomotive on a railway (the Liverpool and Manchester) 
proved its power to draw with much speed a train of cars. This 
year 1868 will scarcely pass before it will triumph over the 
Rocky Mountains, in its passage across the broad Continent of 
North America. It is not unreasonable to anticipate that an 
iron or steel track will, before the end of fifty vears, bestride 
the great Eastern Continent from the North Sea and British 
Channel, around which the commerce of Eurooe centres, to the 
Yellow Sea of the Pacific, the central sea of the commerce of 
eastern Asia. It is quite evident, even now, that commerce moved 
on land will very soon be vastly greater than commerce moved on the 
'water, though the means by which both are carried on will be 
greatly improved. 

In large portions of our Continent every acre mav furnish food 
for land commerce, whereas, the oceans and great seas are 
almost waste places in the lack of means to furnish commer- 
cial equivalents. Until a few years past transportation, l>v 
land, has been so slow and costly that cities on the borders 
of the great seas possessed great advantage of intercourse over 
interior cities ; and, in consequence, almost monopolized the 
world's great. commerce. A revolution is now in rapid progress 
that will change the relations of these localities, and give to 
interior positions a controlling advantage over those on the ocean 
borders. As yet few persons seem to appreciate this great revo- 
lution in its power to change the places best for concentrating the 
world's commerce. Chicago and Toledo unite in a marked degree 
the advantages of both land and water transport. The coasts of 
the great lakes, some 5,000 miles in extent, offer a large field for 



to 

home navigation, and the certainty of a commodious water 
channel, connecting them with the ocean, ensures to them advan- 
tages of navigable intercourse with the outer world. When the 
fertile lands around them become densely Idled with an indus- 
trious and intelligent population, it is difficult to imagine impeding 
causes that ran prevent them from becoming the great centres of 
the trade of our Continent. The probability of the attainment 
of such high destiny will, when known, induce men of intelli- 
gence to select for themselves and families homes in and near these 
cities. The climate for pleasantness and health is among the best 
east of the elevated plateau of the Rocky Mountains. Each has, 
on the borders of its home lake, a fruit climate and soil not 
excelled, if equaled, east of that plateau. 

If it is true that the movement of human power is so surely 
westward as to make it reasonably certain that New York will 
become greater than London ; if it is true that this movement 
will carry a great preponderence of numbers and wealth into the 
great central plain ; if it is true that the home commerce of the 
continent, moved on land and water, is now greatly in excess of 
its foreign commerce, and constantly increasing in proportion; if 
it is true that this home commerce concentrates more and more in 
cities of the interior plain ; if it is true that the lake cities con- 
centrate this home commerce more than the river cities of the 
plain ; if it is true that, of all the lake cities, Chicago and Toledo 
grow faster, by virtue of their power to bring to themselves a 
greater primary commerce than any other lake cities ; if commerce 
by land is becoming much more important, in our country, than 
commerce by water; if all the elements that promote manufactur- 
ing industries are there found most abundantly; if all these are 
true facts, does it not follow, as surely as the day succeeds the 
night, that the great city of the future will be in our great interior 
plain; and, with reasonable certainty, may it not be anticipated 
that Chicago or Toledo will be that city? 

Is it because Chicago is further west than Toledo and so com- 
mands a '' tent of country, in that direction, that it has so 
far outstripped its sister of Lake Erie: oris it owing to some 
other cause than a superiority of position ? Is not the sufficient 
cause found in the facility of opening land to cultivation afforded 



4o 

by the inviting prairie on all sides of the foimer, and the difficulty 
of divesting the soil of the heavy forest surrounding the latter? 
To test the relative merit of the position of these cities respectively, 
let us suppose Chicago to have been surrounded by a dense forest, 
and the whole country within the reach of its natural commercial 
command, like that which surrounded Toledo in 1832; which, in 
that condition, would now be the greater? Does any one doubt 
that it would be Toledo? Again ; let us imagine Toledo, at that 
time, surrounded by a region of prairies, like that of Chicago, and 
that from the west end of Lake Erie had radiated that almost ma- 
gical development of railways, which peopled the States around 
that city, so that the merit of position, ..lone, had determined their 
relative growth Can there be a doubt that Toledo, now, would 
be the greater city ? It is, then, the prairies, on/y, which has given 
Chicago the preference. It is, then, the forest that has retarded 
the growth of Toledo. What will be the effect of prairie and 
forest on these cities hereafter ? The prairies will, to a large 
extent, be monopolized by large holders, be cultivated by machi- 
nery, and so be sparsely inhabited. The forest impediment to 
cultivation will every year grow less. Already in considerable 
portions its removal is a source of profit. It is becoming an im- 
portant source of revenue. It is being divided into smallholdings, 
tending to a greater density of population. 

If now the position of Toledo has been inferior, only because of 
the advantage to Chicago of her prairies, that inferiority is being 
removed and becomes a superiority when, in addition to the 
advantage of having the ground in sufficient quantity opened for 
use, there remains a valuable supply of timber land interspersed 
and available for the various purposes of advancing art in city 
and country at home, and for export abroad. 

And now may it not be justly claimed that the westward move- 
ment of human power will, much within one hundred years, bring 
the world's great centre of commerce to New York, and, if to 
New York, then to an interior city — if to an interior city, then to 
a lake city— and if to a lake city, then to Toledo or Chicago, as 
the natural advantages of position shall finally prove more power- 
ful to favor the one or the other? 



4' 

One hundred years ! What may we not hope of development 
in that period — long, if measured by the duration of human life • 
short for the life of a nation, and very short in comparison with 
the life ot the human race. Looking back one hundred years, 
we find that some 4,000,000 of population of British Colonies 
have grown to 40,000,000. New York then was about two-thirds 
the size of Toledo now. Our city population has increased more 
than thirty fold. Our wealth has increased faster than our cities. 
One hundred years to come, with the command of steam, electri- 
city, and we know not what other and superior agencies for 
wonder-working, can scarcely fail to produce results of a magni- 
tude beyond the power of the most vigorous imagination to con- 
ceive. The cities of western Europe are grand out-growths of 
modern improvements, but they will be deemed, in their present 
condition, rude and small in comparison with the vast emporiums 
which, in one hundred years, will grow up on our continent. 







I 




